Sports leagues administrators understand the almost unfair advantage that the home ground phenomenon offers that they have decided to nullify its effect by devising a system where each team participating in a particular professional tournament plays all the other teams both at home and away.
However, when dealing with money and placing winning bets, it is wise to use statistical analysis to back any statement. Otherwise, these statements remain in the realm of hypotheses and guesses, even if they are educated guesses.
Calculating the validity of the home ground advantage: A case study
By the way of proving the home ground advantage, let’s look at the following scenario:
You are a Liverpool supporter, and your arch enemy, or the team you hate the most is Manchester United. You are also a keen sports betting pundit. And, you want to know what the betting odds placed by a sportsbook on their mobile app like the Sportingbet mobile app, are worth placing a bet on or not.
At first, let’s look at a bit of background on these two teams.
Both the cities of Manchester and Liverpool are located in the North West of England, 35 miles apart from each other. They have been rivals since the Industrial Revolution in the areas of economics and industrialisation. Thus, it stands to reason that their rivalry has spread into the sporting arena, especially in football.
The Manchester United FC was formed in 1878 and played their first competitive match in October 1886, when they played in the first round of the FA cup. On the other hand, Liverpool FC was founded in 1892. In the club’s first season, Liverpool played in the Second Division league. The team was undefeated and was promoted to the First Division.
The history between these two teams is long and chequered, including several incidents of hooliganism between the rival supporters.
In summary, Liverpool has won a total of 63 titles, and Manchester United was awarded a total of 66 titles.
Worldfootball.net shows that Manchester United and Liverpool have played each other a total of 200 times. United have been at home 94 times, Liverpool have been at home 92 times, and they have played each other at a neutral venue 14 times.
The wins, draws and losses are as follows:
Manchester United at home: 49 wins, 29 draws, and 16 losses.
Liverpool away: 16 wins, 29 draws, and 49 losses.
Manchester United away: 26 wins, 21 draws, and 45 losses.
Liverpool at home: 45 wins, 21 draws, and 26 losses.
Manchester United at a neutral venue: 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses.
Liverpool at a neutral venue: 4 losses, 5 draws, and 5 wins
These figures demonstrate the following facts:
Firstly, the home ground advantage is substantial.
Manchester United won 24.5%, drew 14.5%, and lost less than 1% of their matches at home.
Manchester United won 13%, drew 10.5%, and lost 22.5% of their away matches.
Liverpool won 22.5%, drew 10.5%, and lost 13% of the matches at home.
Liverpool won 0.8%, drew 14.5%, and lost 24.5% of their away matches.
And finally, statistics show that Manchester United is the overall favourite team by winning a total of 37.5% of their matches at home and away versus Liverpool who won 23.3% of their matches home and away.