With the 2022 NFL season right around the corner and preseason beginning, so does NFL betting. While others are drafting fantasy teams, others are checking NFL picks and getting bets ready for the season. Whether you are a new bettor or a returning one, there are do’s and don’ts you should follow in order to have a successful betting season in the NFL.
Although there isn’t just one best strategy to win NFL bets, there are some tips and strategies one can follow to be more profitable by season’s end. Below there are some tips and strategies that most successful bettors follow when betting on NFL games.
Use Logic Not Emotions
For some people, even if it may seem clear to the majority, betting emotionally rarely results in success, especially when it comes to NFL betting. Make sure you are betting objectively and unbiasedly, whether you are betting on your favorite team or betting against a team you despise. It probably isn’t a good idea to wager against the Chiefs every game if you are a Broncos fan.
Nothing is worse than losing money and watching your least favorite team win at the same time. It is necessary to put aside your fandom and wager based on logic and statistics in order to win bets.
Check for Player Status
With football considered the prime example of a team game, even small changes can throw off any team whether it is a star player or a role player. Outside of checking the obvious in betting such as latest trends or recent stats, making sure to check injury reports is key for any sports betting, especially football. NFL predictions often change depending on who is in and out of the game. Jonathan Taylor being out of the game has a lot more significance than his backup Nyheim Hines being out of the game.
Prior to betting a game, make sure you check the latest injury report updates by seeing who was out of practice all week, who is taking warmups before the game, or any last minute status changes on a player who may go from doubtful to probable. Also consider following sports writers or analysts from ESPN or local media platforms who can provide the latest updates on a player’s status.
Pay Attention to Where the Game is Played
Similar to all sports, the home team typically has the upper hand. In football, home field advantage is influenced by things including field type (indoor or outdoor), weather (colder city or warmer city), and crowd noise. For instance, the Seattle Seahawks have a 103-41 home record since 2003 and are known for having some of the loudest fans in the whole league. There are several teams who frequently do not fit in with the Seahawks because they consistently perform poorly. The 0-16 Browns and Lions, for example, obviously lost all home games that year and are examples of teams you wouldn’t normally back at home. Check the home/away records of the two teams playing before placing a bet.
Unlike home advantage, there are some teams who struggle on the road no matter where they are playing. For example, since 2011, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the worst record by a team on the road, with a record of 16-72 with the Browns not too far behind with a 18-70 record. Another instance of this is when teams from the Eastern and Pacific time zones compete against one another because of the three-hour time difference. This advice can be disregarded if you are placing Super Bowl wagers because it is rare for a team to play a Super Bowl in their own stadium.
With all sports betting and more importantly NFL betting, there are many factors that can determine the right or best pick. Factors like player injuries, suspensions, weather, home/away record, and more all go into deciding what or who to bet on. While NFL expert picks often help with pointing out certain stats and help make a decision, they are not always right. Doing your own research will be key and when doing so, throwing away any biases helps. One last thing to remember is to have fun and be smart! Best of luck in the upcoming 2022 NFL season.